Trump’s Current Lead in the Polls Bodes Trouble for the Nation in the November 2024 Election
Robert Brent Toplin
The results of the New York Times and Siena College Polls became public yesterday, and they are alarming. They show Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five of six important battleground states a year before the 2024 presidential election. Trump is ahead of Biden by 4 to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Voters’ judgments about Biden are shockingly low. His approval rating is only 38.9%, while his disapproval rating is 54.8%. In the recent poll 71% said Biden was “too old” to be an effective president. 62% thought Biden does not have the “mental sharpness” to be effective. Especially disturbing for Democrats, voters under 30, a group Biden won handily in 2020, say they trust Donald Trump more on the economy by a whopping 28 percentage points.
There is evidence from history, too, that suggests Biden’s candidacy in 2024 could be in deep trouble. Voters’ attitudes about their economic wellbeing and their judgments about a candidate’s charisma weigh heavily in their decision-making. On both counts, Biden is looks weak. Yet he refuses to acknowledge mounting evidence of his vulnerabilities.
President Biden can benefit the Democrats and the nation by announcing plans to retire after his current term in office. If he chooses not to run again, he will likely become recognized as America’s most successful one-term president. But if he campaigns again, loses the election, and influences the defeat of numerous Democratic candidates, millions of Americans will blame Joe Biden for the party’s troubles.
A Biden defeat in 2024 is not inevitable, but the long-term evidence of Biden’s weak appeal with voters suggests his run in 2024 is a risky proposition. A victory by Donald Trump, which data suggest is a real possibility, could significantly undermine American democracy. Of course, Trump’s presence on the G.O.P. presidential ballot is not certain. If Trump is convicted for criminal behavior in the coming months, Republicans might nominate a different presidential candidate. That person, perhaps Nikki Haley, could have even greater appeal with voters than Donald Trump.
If Biden takes himself out of the race, the Democrats have plenty of attractive political leaders on their bench to take his place. California governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer are popular. A more obscure figure, Dean Phillips, a U.S. representative from Minnesota, announced in October 2023 that he would seek the Democratic presidential nomination. In an interview on Bill Maher’s HBO show, Phillips demonstrated impressive communication skills. These individuals or others could improve the Democratic Party’s prospects enormously.
President Biden’s supporters dispute the voters’ negative impressions about the state of the economy. They think appreciation of Bidenomics will become clearer during the leadup to the election. They are correct in pointing to Biden’s economic achievements, but voters’ judgments about them may not change much in the next twelve months.
Comparatively speaking, the U.S. economy is in considerably better shape that the economies of other advanced nations. U.S. manufacturing revived during Biden’s presidency, investment in technology and infrastructure surged, and the job market became robust. Inflation declined faster in the United States than in Europe.
Yet the voters’ perception is different. Many Americans recall that inflation and interest rates were lower during Trump’s presidency. They give little attention to evidence that inflation spiked throughout the globe in recent years because of the Covid pandemic, supply chain delays, the Russia’s war on Ukraine, and other factors. Furthermore, interest rates climbed globally when central banks combated inflation by increasing the cost of borrowing.
Most voters do not have the economic chops to recognize the complex international factors influencing inflation and interest rates. They are focused on the economy’s impact on their daily lives such as the cost of purchasing food for the dinner table or the interest rate on loans they take out to purchase cars and homes. They revealed their discontent in the polls. The recent survey showed voters across all income levels thought Biden’s policies hurt them personally and Trump’s policies helped them.
Attitudes about the economy make a strong impact in presidential elections. They were a factor in Ronald Reagan’s victories over Jimmy Carter and later over Walter Mondale, Bill Clinton’s win over George H. W. Bush, and Barack Obama’s victory against John McCain. Bill Clinton’s political strategist James Carville was right in 1992 when he said a major concern of voters is “The economy, stupid.”
Charisma plays an important role, too, in voters’ perceptions about presidential candidates. The 1960 presidential election provided a classic demonstration. Americans that saw John F. Kennedy on television were impressed with his youth, vigor, and speechmaking skills. In recent decades two charismatic Democrats each served two terms in the White House. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were enormously skilled communicators in the age of mass electronic communications. Joe Biden did not captivate voters through personal magnetism in 2020. He succeeded by coming across as a responsible, centrist, mainstream politician who could rescue the nation from the chaotic leadership of Donald Trump.
Democrats that are frustrated with Biden’s low standing in the polls are urging him to campaign more vigorously though personal appearances around the country, and they want him to participate in more televised interviews. That kind of engagement might hurt rather than benefit his campaign. Biden does not project energy in his speaking engagements, and his age shows. The President’s formal speeches are well-crafted and fortified with details about his achievements. Nevertheless, his oratory does not resonate with listeners. Biden is far from an ideal candidate in the age of personality-driven campaigning.
Democrats cannot rely comfortably on evidence from the party’s 2020 presidential victory. Joe Biden won with nearly seven million more popular votes and 74 more Electoral College votes than Trump received, but Biden’s margin of victory in six important swing states was miniscule. He squeaked past Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. If Trump had received a few thousand more votes in some of those six states, he could have won a second term in the White House. The situation in November 2024 may be quite different than it was in November 2020, as recent polls suggest.
Democratic leaders are now in the horns of a dilemma. They know that a political party often loses an election when an internal rebellion undermines the incumbent president. An intense battle in the Democratic primaries could facilitate a Republican victory in 2024. Sticking with Biden could also facilitate a G.O.P. victory.
The prospect of a Trump victory in 2024 is so troubling that the choice between the alternatives should be clear. Biden’s and Harris’s poll numbers have been near historic lows for months, and Donald Trump’s numbers have been climbing. Another Trump presidency would be disastrous for the nation and the world. If Democrats are going to deal responsibly with the troubling poll numbers, they will have to act swiftly. They need to face the daunting task of thanking the elderly, decent, and effective man in the White House that he can best serve his party’s and the nation’s goals by clearing a path for a different Democratic nominee.
As many pundits point out, nothing is inevitable in American politics. Conditions can change dramatically. Biden might prevail in the 2024 election. In view of statistical evidence mounting a year before the election, however, gambling on that outcome seems a risky proposition. Selecting a younger and more popular candidate looks like a safer bet.
